RADIS RATINGS.

 

  1. Column 1 is horses TAB number. Horses are in order of assessed rating
  2. Column 2 is horse name
  3. Column 3 is ranking
  4. Column 4 is program assessed price. Market percentage is set at 118% to align with mainstream totes.
  5. Column 5 is prepost market as published in print media
  6. Column 6 is Position In Running – horses usual racing pattern  L – leader  P – on pace  M – midfield  B – backmarker
  7. Column 7 is amassed rating points
  8. Column 8 is amassed points converted to 100 rating system. Top rated horse defaults at 100
  9. Column 9 is the points gap between each runner.
  10. Column 10 is the calculated percentage of winning by backing multiple selections in order of ratings.

 

 

 

  RACE 7 – FLEMINGTON  RDA VICTORIA STAKES – 1100M     TRACK : DEAD  Sat. 19th Jan.

TAB

 

 

 

 

 

Rate

100

Rate

Accum

#

Horse

Rank

Price

P.Post

PIR

Pts

Rate

Gap

%

5

Grand Duels

1

$3.90

6.00

P

3490

100.0

0.0

21.2%

2

Pencelaron

2

$5.40

3.80

P

3355

96.1

3.9

39.7%

8

La Chasseuse

3

$6.20

8.00

L

3195

91.5

8.5

55.9%

6

Seafarer

4

$7.10

8.00

M

2995

85.8

14.2

70.0%

7

Bel Mer

5

$8.10

3.20

  L

2855

81.8

18.2

82.4%

10

Palace General

SCR

$9.20

11.00

 

2775

79.5

20.5

93.3%

3

Northern Point

7

$12.20

26.00

P

2430

69.6

30.4

101.5%

4

Message Bank

8

$16.50

15.00

P

2355

67.5

32.5

107.6%

1

Honalee

9

$22.10

11.00

B

2180

62.5

37.5

112.1%

11

Dandy Dollar

10

$29.50

15.00

B

1710

49.0

51.0

115.5%

9

Bowhunter

11

$39.40

26.00

  B

1180

33.8

66.2

118.0%

 

 

PACE ASSESSMENT: The program has detected no pace bias, and a there is enough top end speed to ensure a genuine pace. Bel Mer is expected to lead the field early from La Chasseuse. Backmarkers should not be disadvantaged. Runners may split into divisions depending on early straight course races

  

Expected Settling and Turning Positions of Runners

 

 

TAB

HORSE

Bar

SP

TP

1

HONALEE

1

10

8

2

PENCELERON

5

6

4

3

NORTH. POINT

11

3

5

4

MESSAGE BANK

6

5

7

5

GRAND DUELS

10

4

3

6

SEAFARER

3

7

6

7

BEL MER

2

1

1

8

LA CHASSEUSE

4

2

2

9

BOWHUNTER

8

8

9

10

PALACE GEN.

9

SCR

 

11

DANDY DOLLAR

7

9

10

 

 

 

 

 

Comment: Top rater Grand Duels looks very good value at the assessed odds against what possibly may be odds on offer, has 3 wins on dead going and looked very good winning down the straight last start, should sit just off them and may be too strong at the finish. Penceleron’s recent straight form has been very good, and expect another good run from this one today, some concern dropping slightly in distance as his best has been at 1200 -1300m range, but is coming off a group 3 run last start. La Chasseusse was runner up to Grand Duels 2 runs back and also ran 2nd at her only other run down the straight, suited at the 1100m and looks like being placed again.  Bel Mer will in all probability start favourite in this, and the way we read the form looks as though she may be way unders. Her first start as a 3yo sees her taking on the older males, although she has smart career form that form has yet to stand the test against open age. She has plenty of toe though, and still should be around the mark at the finish. The best one at good each way odds could be Seafarer, this beautifully bred former West Australian has already a city win to his credit for David Hayes and has won first up. Could be the one at odds getting home hard.

 

Wagering: Definitely Grand Duels on both totes, looks a safe each way wager. Trifecta enthusiasts might like to box, 2 / 5 / 6 / 7 /8   For the first 4  Grand Duels to win box 2 / 6/ 7 /8  Those wishing to multi bet or have a saver, then the value runner may be Seafarer