Flexi Betting the Quaddie - Ken Blake

Perhaps astute form analysts of the modern era have become a little too smart for their own good. In terms of acquiring frequent value, in many ways they have become victims of their own knowledge. Databases, video form, extensive media coverage and a host of other aids give the contemporary punter a marked advantage over their counterparts of years gone by.

Shrewd operators of today have little problem isolating pertinent information and runs suggestive of imminent winning form, it seems not much gets thru’ to the keeper these days. Many of these analysts are media employed directing much of this information into the public arena. Information as such certainly has impact value on the market assessment of many runners. On any race eve a horse may be correctly rated at 5-1. On race day the price may tumble in several points, not on what would be deemed serious race considerations but purely on the evaluation of regarded media tipsters.

 Couple this with form horses ridden by form riders and value on many runners is suppressed to a level below what their perceived chances would appear.

Of all the platforms and bet types that currently avail themselves, is there one that continually exhibits value? The answer is a very definitive yes.

Personal research over a number of years has revealed that the quadrella from a pure value perspective is vastly superior to any other aspect of horse wagering.

If one peruses TAB archival results evaluating the net rollover of each individual win dividend against the quaddie divvy, the majority of the time the quaddie is far superior. At times it is staggering.

 This point is illustrated with the result of Flemington quadrella on July 2^nd. Winners of the legs and their respective win dividends as follows: Leone Chiara 4.60, Live in Vain 7.70, Korcula 10.40 and Willie Command 18.80. An all up roll over of the win dividends here would yield a return of $6,925 the quaddie dividend however returned a very impressive $14,048!  This example is not isolated and is fairly indicative of the enormous percentage overs associated with quadrella betting.

The quaddie as most would know is an exotic bet that requires punters to select the winners of four designated races. All four winners must be selected for any returns. Those who possess the expertise to unravel the quaddie conundrum on a regular basis, great wealth awaits. For most however the gleaning of an expected profit line poses insurmountable obstacles. Until recently this facet of race wagering has largely been the domain of professional punters and large cash syndicates. This sector has the resources to couple considerable numbers in each of the four legs, thus appreciably reducing the risk factor involved.

Ostensibly for most the dilemma is cash restraints. The combination of only 5 horses in each leg is costed at $625, even based on the 50c unit an outlay of $312 on a weekly basis is not sustainable for the average punter. Principally their minimal outlays on insufficient permutations merely fatten the pools for the ‘big boys’ who cash in on the suicidal betting practice of the masses. Historically this has very much been a scenario of money makes money. A recent innovation introduced by the NSW Tab known as FLEXI – BETTING has virtually thrown a life line to the smaller punters of the world who wish to indulge themselves in benefiting from regular quaddie wins.

Flexi Betting enables the punter to take any percentage of the total wager cost they like, as opposed to the fixed 50% minimum of days gone by. The payout and outlay figure is a percentage equal to what the punter has stipulated. If we refer back to the 5 horse per leg example above, the minimum cost of recent times would have been $312. Now the punter may elect to take only 20% of the full cost (625) at a reduced cost of $125. This has created a tremendous window of opportunity enabling punters to tie up large combinations at reduced rates. Punters may not be initially enamoured with marginal returns, closer scrutiny however reveals there is very good money even at reduced rates given the average dividends involved. Any form of betting should be approached with a game plan and strategies. Here are the strategies which has enabled me to treble my initial bank in the first 4 months.

I use a three leg load up and anchor approach. The anchor leg is the ‘skinny’ leg where hopes are pinned on isolating the winner with only 2-3 selections. My first strike was on the second attempt at the C.F. Orr stakes meet at Caulfield in February. It was the Orr stakes itself that appealed as the easiest of the 4 legs. This became the anchor leg. I was comfortable with the analysis that the winner would come from 3 runners. Elvestroem, Regal Roller and Savabeel. These were anchored with Elvestroem the eventual winner. I collected $884 for a $151 outlay (3x7x6x6) taking a 20% share of the total combination cost.

By suppressing the numbers to 2 or 3 in an anchor leg scenario this then allows a reasonably comprehensive coverage of the remaining legs. A typical example here would be 8x3x7x8, where the second leg is the anchor. In most cases several runners can eliminated from each leg with realistic safety, thus reducing field size and increasing coverage. Full costing of an 8x3x7x8 combination would be $1344. A 10% take at a cost of $134 is well within many punters weekly racing budget. With good coverage in 3 of the legs we endeavour to give ourselves every opportunity of long priced results. Ten percent of a 20, 30 or $40,000 quaddie payout is a sizeable dividend in its own right.

 The challenging aspect now is being skilful enough to pull through on the minimal anchor leg. Unlike the methodology associated with many racing plans that require a high degree of winners to service the procedure, quaddie based punting can show excellent returns founded on only a few large divvies per annum.

If we outlay an average of $125 per week over 40 weeks, I use only 40 weeks because there will be numerous times in the course of the year that it will be simply unsatisfactory to wager every week. This will be an outlay of $5000 per annum; this can be recouped by only TWO collects of a $10,000 quaddie at 25%. Given the number of permutations enabled by the flexi concept this is a realistic and achievable aim. If we work on a practical strike rate of 1 in 4 collect, then encouraging profit margins await.

Although in essence we are playing a numbers game in the load up legs we must be careful not to overcook it. Remember the more runners the greater the cost. A balance needs to be struck between outlay and expected return. Skilful trimming of the legs needs to be implemented. Culling of horses with substandard form, bad barriers, distance, track and class queries are to be seriously considered when trying to weed out animals that represent a liability. The aim to reduce the outlay by a greater proportion than that which you reduce your chance of winning. I find a percentage take of a combination cost of around $1200-$1300 gives a good balance between coverage outlay and return. Combination costs are calculated by simply multiplying the number of runners in each leg. The more runners per leg the greater the cost involved and consequently a higher dividend is required to necessitate the profit objective.

By keeping the cost in the region above, we can still glean a profit even if fancied runners win 2 of the legs. This also gives us a good coverage range. If we are skilful enough to isolate the winner from just 2 selections in one of the legs, then we can really load up with say 10 runners and two lots of 8 in the remaining legs.

The value of the flexi betting in allowing the rank and file access to bets that will return sizeable dividends cannot be understated. It is strongly suggested that punters stimulated by this model trial for a number of months on paper. Some may prefer the three leg load up as put forward here whilst others may prefer slightly less runners per leg with a more even spread. It should be the long term projected aim to incrementally increase the percentage take to the full unit as the profit line is augmented. My initial bankroll for this foray was $1500; this was calculated on an average outlay of approximately $150 per bet with a safety net of 10 to carry through any reasonable loss period.

 As the overall profit tends to come from a smaller number of big collects it is very much in our favour to be selective as to when and where we bet. If there appears to be only a few legitimate chances in 2 or more legs then it is in our best long term interests to sit it out, remember we race 7 days a week so there is no shortage of opportunities. For those with a game plan, analytical skills and a modicum of patience, the indefatigable pursuit of racings riches may be more than just an unattainable reverie. The matrimony of Flexi betting and quadrellas for many, may at last navigate a pathway to punting bliss.